AAMC: U.S. Physician Shortage Could Surpass 100,000 by 2030

The United States could face a shortage of 40,800–104,900 physicians by 2030, according to a study published earlier this month by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC).

The study, conducted by the London-based financial services company IHS Markit, attributes these deficiencies to the demands of the nation’s expanding and aging population outstripping the growth of its physician workforce.

The 2017 report’s findings are largely consistent with AAMC estimates from 2015 and 2016. Notably, however, the projected shortfall in primary care is smaller than in years past, in part due to a “projected faster growth in the supply of nurse practitioners” in the field.

Whereas the past two report iterations provided projected shortages into 2025, this year’s edition extends the outlook by five years, offering estimates through 2030 in recognition of “the time needed to fully train a physician who would start medical school in 2017,” AAMC stated in a medical education article.

To combat the intensifying physician shortage, the organization advocates movement on multiple fronts, including “expanding medical school class size, innovating in care delivery and team-based care, making better use of technology, and increasing federal support for an additional 3,000 new residency positions per year over the next five years,” it stated in a press release.

Source: AAMC